It is in more than a decade that the IMD has predicted 'above-normal' rains in the country.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted above-normal rainfall for the upcoming monsoon season in India (June to September). The cumulative rainfall is estimated to be 105 percent of the long-period average. The IMD has also ruled out the possibility of El Nino conditions during the entire season. The monsoon is crucial for India's agriculture sector, which supports the livelihood of a significant portion of the population and contributes substantially to the country's GDP. However, while the prediction of normal rainfall brings relief, climate change is expected to cause variations in rainfall distribution.
Revenue collection next financial year may be affected, and, along with this, subsidies on food and fertilisers can go up if the war in West Asia drags for long, according to experts.
The India Meteorological Department's first monsoon forecast for this year would have gladdened many a heart with the hope of plentiful rain, after two drought years.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted above-normal rainfall across India in June, with most parts of the country likely to experience normal to below-normal maximum temperatures. The IMD also anticipates above-normal minimum temperatures across most of the country, except for some parts of central India and the adjoining south peninsula. The southwest monsoon reached Kerala on May 24, marking its earliest arrival over the Indian mainland since 2009. The monsoon is crucial for India's agriculture-dependent economy, providing vital water for crops and supporting drinking water and hydropower generation.
Even if there is an early agreement on a cessation of hostilities in West Asia, the price shock will not go away easily, points out A K Bhattacharya.
The country can expect normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere are likely to counter the evolving El Nino conditions, the India meteorological department (IMD) said on Tuesday.
The winters could be cooler in the plains due to the prevailing La Nina conditions though it does not have a direct relationship and also due to influence of the polar vortex.
The southwest monsoon has arrived in Mumbai 16 days before its usual date, making it the earliest arrival since 1950. This early onset follows the monsoon's arrival in Kerala, the southernmost state, on Saturday, marking the earliest arrival since 2009. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts an above-normal rainfall for the 2025 monsoon season, with rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the 50-year average of 87 cm considered 'normal'. The monsoon is crucial for India's economy, providing vital water for agriculture and replenishing reservoirs.
Monsoon is likely to be 96 per cent of the long period average
The record monsoon rains across India during the June to September months was 937.2 millimetres, the 5th-highest since 2001 and 38th-highest since 1901.
As the southwest monsoon moves slowly across the southern peninsula, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its latest report said the overall rainfall during the second week of the four-month season was almost 50 per cent less than normal.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from northwest India around September 15. This year's monsoon covered the country earlier than usual, resulting in surplus rainfall and extreme weather events.
Data since 2005 show that the five years with the highest rainfall saw average market returns of 8.98 per cent, while the five driest years returned 25.7 per cent on average.
Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist, HSBC, speaks about a range of issues ranging from inflation, to how Goods and Services Tax and land acquisition bills can help India hit double digit growth, and her impressions about economic growth in the last one year after Narendra Modi took over as India's Prime Minister.
Markets will look for clear guidance on how the MPC interprets the uncertainty and what it implies for the future course of monetary policy, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
The southwest monsoon season concluded on Saturday with India receiving 'below-average' cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in an El Nino year.
The last time the southwest monsoon arrived earlier than in 2025 -- that is, back in 2009 -- the rains lost steam after the early onset and ended the season with almost 23 per cent deficient rainfall, which was the lowest recorded average rainfall in several decades over India.
El Nino is expected to occur in August-September, but it is unlikely to have any major impact on the monsoon, and the weatherman expects a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which has a strong influence on rainfall in the country.
The IMD said India did not experience any "break monsoon" conditions this year because of the large number of low-pressure systems.
The onset of the southwest monsoon is being keenly watched this year as it may provide an early sign regarding its progress over the Indian subcontinent, particularly when El Nio is expected to rear its head during the latter half of the season.
Heatwave may abate over most parts of North India in next two days; temperatures likely to drop by 2-3C.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts above-normal rainfall for India in September, following a monsoon season marked by heavy downpours and related disasters in various regions. The forecast indicates normal to above-normal rainfall for most areas, with some exceptions in the northeast, east, extreme south peninsular India, and parts of northwest India.
The Indian Meteorological Department has forecast a below-normal monsoon this year because of the El-Nino effect.
"This year, the Southwest Monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on May 31 with a model error of four days," the India meteorological department said on Wednesday.
The IMD said that rainfall over India in August and September would be around 106 percent of the long-period average of 422.8 mm.
On May 15, the weather office had announced the onset of monsoon over Kerala by May 31.
India is likely to witness normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season this year, the India Meteorological Department said on Thursday. Rainfall will be 96 per cent to 104 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 87 cm of the 1971-2020 period, it noted. Earlier, the IMD used to consider the LPA of 88cm of the 1961-2010 period.
India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September) with cumulative rainfall rainfall estimated at 106 percent of the long-period average (87 cm), he said.
The Lancet study revealed that the HbA1c test is erroneous in populations with anemia and other hemoglobin-related deficiencies in India.
Many years during which monsoons were poor saw high returns, while normal or excess rainfall has also coincided with poor calendar year gains.
"Conditions are favourable for the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala and its further advance into some more parts of south Arabian sea, remaining parts of Maldives - Comorin area, some parts of Tamil Nadu and some more parts of Bay of Bengal during the next 24 hours," said a statement by the Indian Meteorological Department.
Met department assures rains are likely to revive from next week
The monsoon this year in India was likely to be 'below normal' at 95% of LPA: Skymet
Addressing a press conference virtually, India Meteorological Department Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said September was likely to witness normal rainfall in the range of 91-109 per cent of the long period average of 167.9 mm.
It has also predicted a below normal monsoon for the season with a Long Period Average of 93 per cent, subject to the error margin of 5 per cent.
This would be due to early monsoon onset, abundant precipitation in the soil and the government's higher minimum support price (MSP) for farmers, the USDA said in its assessment.
The early onset of the southwest monsoon brought continuous rainfall across southern and eastern India, contributing to this record.
Monsoon normally hits Kerala on June 1 but this year, Met department had predicted that it will hit the state on June 5.
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